M E M O R A N D U M
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To: Interested Parties
From: Kiley & Company
Re: Public Support for an Increase In the Massachusetts Cigarette Tax
Date: February, 2008
Introduction
This memorandum summarizes the key findings from a recent survey of a representative sample of 501 Massachusetts voters. Telephone interviews were conducted during the evening and weekend hours of January 24 through January 27, 2008. On average, interviews required 15 minutes to complete.
Respondents were selected through use of a modified random-digit dialing (RDD) sampling methodology. Gender and regional quotas were applied, to ensure that the sample is representative of the overall Massachusetts voting public. The margin of error for responses based on the total sample is +/- 5.4%, at a 95% confidence level.
Executive Summary
Our survey results show strong public support for the proposal to increase the state? cigarette tax by one dollar per pack. Bay State voters favor this proposal by a solid, two-to-one margin (63% to 33%). And, when voters are given more information about the specific proposal now before the legislature namely, that new revenues from the cigarette tax would be earmarked for tobacco-control programs and funding of the state? new Health Care Reform law support for the proposal increases substantially.
Once voters have heard this information, they favor the proposal by a margin of three-to-one (74% to 25%).
MA STATEWIDE VOTER SURVEY
Smokers initially express overwhelming opposition to the proposed tax increase, but fully half of them express support after hearing that proceeds from the tax increase would be earmarked for tobacco control and expanded health-care coverage.
Significantly, we find no advantage in arguing for a smaller increase in the cigarette tax. Support for the dollar-a-pack tax increase (74%) isjust as high in fact, slightly higher than the level of support for a 50-cent increase (72%).
There are more smokers who favor a 50-cent increase (57%) than there are who favor a one-dollar increase (50%) in the cigarette tax. But among the much larger group of non-smokers, there is more support for a one-dollar increase (78%) than there is for a 50-cent increase (75%).
Impact on the Vote for Legislature
Our survey shows that legislative candidates who support the one-dollar increase in the cigarette tax are not likely to pay a price at the polls. Two-of-five (44%) voters say that this position would make no difference in their voting decision, and fully 37% say they would be more likely to support such a candidate. Only 15% of voters say they would be less likely to support a legislative candidate who supports the one-dollar increase.
Among voters who support the increase, almost half (49%) would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the one-dollar tax hike. Among those who oppose the increase, 50% would be less likely to support such a candidate but almost as many say this position would not affect their vote (45%).
Closing the Deficit
An overwhelming majority of voters (69%) are aware that the state faces a budget shortfall in the coming year. And there is strong support for the idea of increasing the cigarette tax as a way to help close the budget gap.
Almost three-of-four (73%) voters say they would favor an increase in the cigarette tax as a way to help close the deficit. There is more support for this proposal than for any of the others tested in our survey, with one exception: 78% of voters say they would favor closing some corporate tax loopholes to help close the deficit.
Raising the cigarette tax is a significantly more popular revenue option than casino gambling (61% favor) or increasing the bottle deposit (57%). And all of these proposals are seen as vastly preferable to raising broad-based taxes or reducing local aid; more than three-of-four voters oppose a proposal to raise the sales tax (77%), and four-of-five reject proposals to raise the income tax (80%); reduce aid to cities and towns (82%); or increase the state gas tax (84%).
MA STATEWIDE VOTER SURVEY
Analysis of Support
After hearing additional information about the proposal to raise the cigarette tax including the fact that it would generate $154 million a year in new revenue voters favor this proposal by solid majority of 73% to 26%.
This margin is essentially unchanged from earlier tests of voter support; once voters hear that revenues from this tax increase could be applied to tobacco prevention and the Health Care Reform law, support locks in at this very high level.
A close analysis of the results of this final test show that support is ten points higher among women (78%) than among men (68%), and a dozen points higher among college graduates (80%) than among non-college voters (68%). Voters under age 40 (79%) are also somewhat more likely than voters aged 40 and older (71%) to support the one-dollar increase.
Funding for Tobacco Prevention
Bay State voters are generally inclined to support an increase in funding for tobacco prevention programs. After hearing that the state currently spends about $12 million a year for this purpose down from a peak figure of $54 million a year a majority (55%) of voters say they would favor restoring funding to the higher level. About two-of-five (39%) voters would oppose such a move.
Non-smokers favor this increase in funding by a margin of three-to-two (57% to 38%). Among smokers, opinion is sharply divided: 49% favor the increase, but 46% oppose it.
Democrats (65% top 29%) strongly favor such an increase, as does a more modest majority of Independents (52% to 42%). Among Republicans, a 58%-to-42% majority opposes such an increase in tobacco-control funding.